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I have a theory, so since Flash is apparently on it’s way out due to lack of support from mobile devices, which is sparking the whole web to change to other mobile friendly platforms to display rich media which Flash use to dominate.. is it possible that this is only a temporary thing, and once mobile devices are fast enough and able to run Flash properly, Flash could make a comeback?
Think of it this way, we all know the popular game Tetris.. now the first mobile phones like Nokia had very simple games initially like Snake, and Tetris etc.. we could play better 3D games on consoles at the time but because of the currently state of mobile phone technology, Tetris is all we could play, but we played it anyway otherwise we’d just be using our phones to make calls and send texts.. Now fast forward a bit and suddenly we can all play more advanced 3D games on our phones which are similar to our favorite consoles games and no one is playing Tetris or snake anymore.
So just like Tetris makes a come back every time we have a new technology in it’s infancy, think the first DOS PC , first console, first portable console, first mobile phone, all of these technologies Tetris re-merged and become popular over the years. Who knows, in the future we might have chips implanted in our heads and can play Tetris which is projected from the back of our retinas… Point is, could it just be that mobile phones and portable tablets are just not technology advanced enough to support the same media that desktop machines can run, like Flash, but over time.. just like the GameBoy became the PSP , this won’t be a factor and we’ll see Flash making a comeback?
Right now it’s just more plausible to change everything on the web to mobile friendly technologies, otherwise you losing out on a huge segment of users, but I think those alternative technologies have a long way to go until they can out do what Flash has achieved in the last 10 years.. Give a few years and running Flash on a iPhone would be a non issue since it would be 100x times faster than it is now. 10 years ago I remember the coolest thing I could do with my phone was to send a text, now I can browse the internet and take video on my phone etc… so I’d say a few years Flash could make a huge comeback.. it’s just that the current mobile phone technology needs to progress a bit. I don’t see why a whole platform should just disappear because of technological latency of current mobile devices.
I think what Apple did was use this technology gap with phones as leverage to cull a big competitor like Adobe making out Flash slows down their technology, but we all know that technology is forever improving exponentially. Apple took that opportunity purely as a competitive business tactic.. If they continue to drag their feet and not allow technologies like Flash to run on their devices – they are only slowing down the progress of technology purely for their own benefit.
Since Adobe already gave up on mobile flash player, the only come back that might happen is the AIR on mobile thingy I guess.
Last time, binaries compiled by AIR runs extremely slow on iPhone/iPad but now u can see that more games being compiled by AIR runs well on iPad2 and android tablets.
But AIR on mobile thingy is obviously more suitable for heavy apps or games.
For web and simple apps, HTML5 is fit for that purpose I guess.
I see where you going and I hear what you say .. but let me ask you this if your competitor starts something new, and you know that the industry is just a set of copy cats , they move with the new fad would you not put yourself in a position to profit … ADOBE had all the time in the world to fix their issues and they did not .. Heck they even said it themselves .. WE DROP THE BALL !! ...
When Apple started to dick them .. they said hey to hell with them we are too big to fail Android will be there guess what its still not reliable on android … so android started to slowly but surly distance themselves …. I lay the blame at ADOBES foot .. no one else!!
Nothing can be compared to Flash right now, but it will only survive if ADOBE starts to get it right … the industry is littered with mobile devices ….. and yet they have not done nothing to fix their mobile service instead they throw in the towel ..
PS: my current phone (htc evo) is faster than my first windows computer 1999 … I was able to view some cool flash sites and yes sites now are much more advance but so is the devices … I don’t think speed is an issue …
I think there are 2 reasons why Apple managed to succeed on killing Flash easily. One is presently no much demand for rich content that Flash solely producing, so the mobile web users didn’t felt much difference without Flash (Apple had 3 years to observe comfortably this fact from when iPhone 1.0 released and finally they knew it is their time).
Second reason, the entire web developer (non-Flash) community is waiting for a way to get ride Flash.
Due to the 2nd reason, and the fact that Adobe’s future also in question (including Photoshop), we have more chances to live with painful technologies than Flash resurrection. We have a long history of how developers tortured by browser wars, browser domination and browser instabilities – so the web development’s comfort zone is towards pain. Flash helped to stay away from this in some parts but developers doesn’t need it .
It is very hard to predict what will be the changes after 3-4 years but easy to guess about next couple years. It will be very similar to today.
Basically the world shifting to more plain contact due to Apple or not it doesn’t matter why it’s a fact. I think we are in the aftereffect flash shock hit and we all waiting for the dust to get clear. (If it gets clear) .
I think the next change will be in the js platform but really who cares? If a client want me to do for him wp or whatever I’ll do it, personally i don’t have much fate in js its just way to slaw for the coming high tec` days standers, and really you can’t do much with HTML 5 this days there is just no simple freedom with HTML 5 everything there is just a pain to make .Flash will be around that is also a fact ….. but not in popularity…..
The first week that I heard the news about adobe dropping the flash version for mobile devices was totally a disaster to me. I was like, OMG , what am I gonna do now, how can I make money any more? it was even worst when the market was so fragile that my sales here in AD dropped to 2 sales in 7 days!
I’m sure a lot of other flash coders felt the same, but then something cool happened. one of my clients contacted me and asked if I can build him a mobile version of a game I had done for him before… I knew Air was supported on mobile devices, but I never had actually created a mobile app. so I did and it paid very good. my team is working on 3 different mobile apps right now with the old AS3 knowledge we had. creating mobile apps is a big market and being able to create Air apps for android, IOS and blackberry devices is something very profitable.
it’s obvious that flash player will never be reborn on mobile devices and I’m pretty sure that in the coming years, flash player will be totally removed even from desktop browsers. I don’t agree with you, Digitalscience, that flash will be back when devices are more powerful in future. because the main reason that flash faded out on mobile devices was mainly the lack of usefulness of flash apps on mobiles.
you see, adobe had always said that flash player is good because you can code once and it will perform the same on all different browsers. that was true and the biggest reason I always loved flash. but now, with mobile native apps that motto is not that bold anymore.
If you ask a website owner about what he thinks about building a mobile version of his website, the first thing you will hear is about creating a native app which can be downloaded via mobile when users visiting their site. just a few clients would consider building an HTML5 version of their site for mobile view.
all I’m saying is that we flash developers, would just need to rename ourselves and don’t say flash developer anymore! we could use AS3 developer instead! right?
Adobe Air is moving forward very fast. with Air 3.1 I can fully control the mobile camera and many other hardware accesses are available. we AS3 coders have definitely nothing to fear about. it is even better
having a quick thought… the only Envato market that will suffer from this transition is ActiveDen. I feel bad thinking about it, but that’s how it is. and I’m not sure it would be a good idea for Envato to allow native mobile apps on AD because big markets are already ruling that! right?
Nobody know what the future brings and this is the beauty of it some time is not how we expect it but this is how life is in general.
In my opinion the html5 propaganda is made just so that huge companies can make money by selling apps(native apps) I think this is the entire fuss, think about coding with JS something serious, I mean it is possible but the time involved in it and all the incompatibilities will drive any developer crazy and we will never get even close to what flash can do, and here I want to point that you don’t have the freedom that flash offers, this will never be possible with a language like JS plus don’t forget that the html5/css is not meant for stuff that we build in flash (the stuff that makes you WOW ) and it will never be, unless the entire concept will be modified which I doubt.
I don’t think flash will have a comeback and ADOBE has all the fault in this, but it will still be relevant on desktop, actually if you want something really cool flash is the only alternative.
As for air I do not advice to invest your time in this, because ADOBE might drop it over night, it seam that they have no problem doing this stuff.
We all need to take the painful path of JS and do our magic with it and hope that the future for us flash web developers will be better.
^ Do our magic with JS? .
I hope you are joking cos` really 5 years ago up today JS didn’t do much, just evolve himself base on programing, any math programmer will tell you that JS can’t evolve to a complex program without any engine.
JS in nature is a slow program and that won’t change, thing is… it doesn’t bother anyone that its slow and limited cos` people buying those app`s,+ the amount of JS script people shove into WP/html and they are happy with speed daze me, and the browser have a big impact on the script, but again no one care about that and i just don’t get it .
I don’t have problem with JS, actually it’s the first program language i learn(well ….Java base), so it’s also good indicate about my age give and take, but people say it the future? then i ask myself where they get there weeds? cos` someone here is on drugs and its mot me …..
Regarding Air ,i agree with you 100%, just one word from apple… Air apps are not that good it’s the end .
I always say what push Air/Flex and all the rest of the side framework in use was flash, you take the focus from the main flash…..if that the case if you ask me all Air/Flex(and i love flex) will fade away in time …… because they step down from mobile i stop developing (or spend my time )on Air/Flex as they can close those sector tomorrow and once again you will get screw.. I learn my lesson
It is not easy but I still want to remain a web developer (creative web developer) so the only option that I have is JS there is nothing else…
I am coding with OOP rules for about three years now, imagine how I feel when I go back to object based programming, is worst then as 2.0…, it is really painful but this is the reality, everybody wants stuff to run on IPAD
Again I still believe in flash for PC I don’t see it go away from PC because is just too damn cool but who knows, and also things might change, maybe it will be back on mobile one day.
And yes I am joking about the magic of JS , in the end apple won, two years from now and most of the users will think that the browser is limited and only apps can make a WOW , happy times
I don’t agree with you that Adobe can shut down your Air for mobile business at once. All the time you put in your Android and iOS apps is a good investment. Even if Adobe gives AIR to the Apache Foundation one day, the apps you deployed (using the captive runtime) will keep on working and make money. Even if Android is going to be version 7.0 and devices changed you will be able to deploy using Air SDK 3 .1 in 5 years (as well thanks to native extensions and backwards compatibility). Thanks to captive runtime you are not dependent on a Flash Player your customers have to have installed. Compile your things and package it and done. All that is needed is included.